US obesity rate set to fall thanks to weight loss drugs

The United States could see one of the sharpest drops in obesity rates globally, thanks to the growing use of weight loss drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy, according to a new report.

The latest data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggests the obesity rate is already starting to decline — from 42 per cent to 40.3 per cent over the past three years — equivalent to 4.1 million adults moving out of the obesity category.

Now, a new analysis by digital health provider Treated estimates that the US could see a further 10.6 per cent reduction in obesity over the next five years, with around 2.17 million people shedding enough weight annually to no longer be classed as obese.

This rate of decline is significantly faster than in Europe, where researchers predict a 6.6 per cent fall over the same period — representing around 786,000 people per year moving out of obesity.

The rapid shift in the US is attributed largely to the uptake of GLP-1 receptor agonists such as semaglutide (found in Ozempic and Wegovy), which reduce appetite and lead to significant weight loss with weekly injections. These drugs are having a larger impact in the US due to the higher prevalence of obesity and a greater willingness among Americans to access and pay for such treatments.

Currently, around one in eight adults in the US is estimated to have tried a weight loss drug. By 2026, researchers believe at least 2.86 million Americans will be using medications like Ozempic, Wegovy, Zepbound, or Mounjaro.

If that usage continues, the US could see 2.17 million people each year fall below the obesity threshold between 2026 and 2030 — leading to a potential total of 10 million people reversing their obesity status by the end of the decade.

Despite this progress, the overall US obesity rate is still expected to remain higher than that of Europe, where 17 per cent of people are classed as living with obesity.

In Europe, by contrast, just under one million people are expected to be using weight loss medication by 2026, with lower uptake across the continent. Even in Denmark, where GLP-1 drugs were first developed, only 1.5 per cent of adults have used them.

Dr Daniel Atkinson, Clinical Lead at Treated, said: “It’s possible we’ve seen obesity peak. We may now be entering a period where the number of people exiting the obesity category overtakes those entering it. That shift could have profound implications for public health, potentially preventing hundreds of thousands of cases of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer each year.”

Obesity is associated with a wide range of chronic health conditions, including heart disease, stroke, diabetes and cancer. It can also negatively affect mental health, contributing to poor body image, depression and stigma.

Dr Joseph Palumbo, Senior Medical Adviser for Treated, added: “We now have an effective tool, alongside diet and exercise, to tackle obesity without resorting to invasive surgical interventions. These medications mark a new era in obesity care.”

However, experts have also cautioned that many patients regain weight after stopping treatment, and the long-term impact of widespread use is still being studied.

The data for the report was drawn from Treated’s own prescribing records across the US and 10 European countries— including the UK, Germany, Sweden, Norway and Portugal — as well as national public databases on prescription rates.