UK among worst in Europe as global childhood obesity set to reach 228 million by 2040, warns World Obesity Federation
A major new global report has warned that the World Obesity Federation predicts a sharp rise in childhood obesity over the next 15 years, with the UK already ranking among the worst in Europe.
According to the Federation’s ATLAS 2026 report, around 180 million children aged five to 19 worldwide were living with obesity in 2025. By 2040, that figure is forecast to rise to 228 million if urgent action is not taken.
The report also highlights a significant global shift: by 2040, the number of children living with obesity is expected to exceed those who are underweight. While 142 million children are predicted to be underweight by 2040, far more will be living with obesity - underlining the scale of the growing public health challenge.
The UK has one of the highest childhood obesity rates in Europe. An estimated 3.8 million children aged five to 19 have a high body mass index (BMI), meaning they are overweight or living with obesity - roughly double the number recorded in France and Italy.
Currently, 11.4 per cent of UK children aged five to 19 are living with obesity, while 18.9 per cent are overweight. By 2040, obesity prevalence is projected to rise to 12.4 per cent, although the proportion classed as overweight is predicted to fall slightly to 17.3 per cent.
Globally, the scale of the issue is stark. In the United States, around 27 million children aged five to 19 have a high BMI. China accounts for 62 million, while India has 41 million.
The Federation warns that the consequences could be “catastrophic” without intervention. By 2040, at least 120 million school-age children worldwide are expected to show early signs of chronic diseases linked to high BMI.
In the UK alone, projections suggest that by 2040:
Around 370,000 children could show early signs of cardiovascular disease
More than 270,000 may have hypertension
Approximately 114,000 are expected to have raised blood glucose levels
Childhood obesity is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, certain cancers and musculoskeletal problems. The report also stresses that obesity in childhood frequently tracks into adulthood, significantly raising the risk of non-communicable diseases later in life. In addition to physical health risks, children and adolescents living with obesity face substantial psychosocial consequences.
In the UK, children aged six to 10 consume between 150 and 200 millilitres of sugary drinks per day on average. Meanwhile, 80 per cent of those aged 11 to 17 fail to meet recommended physical activity levels.
The report notes that obesity rates are rising fastest in low- and middle-income countries, making childhood obesity a global social and economic development challenge rather than a problem confined to high-income nations.
To prevent further escalation, the Federation calls for urgent, coordinated policy action, including sugar taxes, restrictions on the marketing of unhealthy foods to children and limits on the availability of high-fat, high-salt and high-sugar products. Without decisive intervention, it warns, rising obesity rates will place increasing strain on health systems, communities and future generations.