More than half of children set to be living with overweight or obesity in nine parts of England by 2035, new study warns

Childhood obesity is set to worsen across England, with new projections revealing that more than half of all 10- and 11-year-olds in nine local authority areas will be living with overweight or obesity by 2035.

The findings, published in a forthcoming report from the Royal Society for Public Health (RSPH), suggest a “deeply concerning” rise in childhood obesity across 90 per cent of local areas. The modelling, based on official data from the National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP), shows that the proportion of Year 6 pupils living with overweight or obesity is expected to rise from 36 per cent in 2023–24 to 41 per cent by 2034–35.

For the first time since national records began, nine council areas are projected to exceed 50 per cent, meaning the majority of children in these locations will be living with overweight or obesity. The affected areas include Blackpool, Knowsley, Sandwell, Barking and Dagenham, Wolverhampton, Walsall, Newham, Luton, and Nottingham.

William Roberts, Chief Executive of the RSPH, described the projections as a sign that “we are heading in the wrong direction.” He highlighted junk food and sedentary lifestyles as major contributors to the crisis. “Childhood obesity leads to complex, lifelong health problems including type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, certain cancers and poor mental health,” he warned.

The RSPH’s new report, Playground Rules, calls for urgent action to promote physical activity in schools. Roberts added that children living in more deprived areas are expected to be hit hardest, reflecting entrenched health inequalities.

The analysis also identifies Blackpool as not only the area with the highest projected rates, but also the largest expected increase over the next decade. Chris Webb, Labour MP for Blackpool South responded: “These figures are alarming, but they are not inevitable. With proper investment and policy reform, we can turn this around.”

Campaigners argue that policy must go beyond physical activity to include meaningful regulation of the commercial food environment. Katharine Jenner, Director of the Obesity Health Alliance, said: “We must fix the broken food system that is fuelling this crisis. The implications for families, schools and health services are huge.”

Recent revelations have shown how government policies around junk food advertising and promotions have been delayed or watered down. Health advocates, including the Soil Association, are calling on the next government to prioritise regulation of ultra-processed foods and use upcoming food strategies to create a healthier national diet.

Local authorities say they need more funding to deliver effective support. David Fothergill, chair of the Local Government Association’s community wellbeing board, said: “This is a ticking health timebomb. Councils need the resources to invest in healthy eating and physical activity programmes where they are needed most.”

A government spokesperson said efforts are under way to review school food standards and integrate more physical activity into children’s daily lives. “We are determined to give every child the best start in life” they said.