More than half of adults worldwide predicted to be living with overweight or obesity by 2050

More than half of all adults across the globe, along with a third of children, teenagers and young adults, are expected to be living with overweight or obesity by 2050, according to new research.

The findings, published in The Lancet and covering data from more than 200 countries, suggest that obesity levels are set to rise sharply over the next 25 years, particularly in lower-income nations.

Researchers warn that without urgent government intervention, the world could face what they describe as a “profound tragedy”. However, they emphasise that there is still time to act.

By 2021, nearly half of the world’s adult population which is about one billion men and 1.11 billion women, aged 25 and over, were living with overweight or obesity. The proportion of men and women affected has doubled since 1990.

If current trends continue, global rates are expected to climb to approximately 57.4 per cent for men and 60.3 per cent for women by 2050.

China, India and the United States are projected to have the largest numbers of overweight or obese adults by mid-century, with 627 million, 450 million and 214 million respectively.

Population growth is also expected to drive a steep rise in sub-Saharan Africa, where the number of overweight or obese adults is predicted to increase by more than 250 per cent to reach 522 million by 2050.

Nigeria stands out in particular, with figures expected to more than triple, from 36.6 million in 2021 to 141 million in 2050, making it the country with the fourth-largest population of overweight or obese adults.

The study does not factor in the potential impact of new weight-loss drugs, such as Mounjaro and Wegovy, which researchers acknowledge could significantly alter future outcomes.

Professor Emmanuela Gakidou, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, who led the research, said governments could use the country-specific estimates to identify populations most at risk.

“The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure,” she said.

Rates of obesity among children and young people are also rising sharply. Between 1990 and 2021, obesity in children and younger teenagers increased from 8.8 per cent to 18.1 per cent, while rates among young adults under 25 doubled from 9.9 per cent to 20.3 per cent. By 2050, one in three young people is expected to be affected.

Dr Jessica Kerr, co-lead author from the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia, said the findings present a major challenge for health systems worldwide.

“If we act now, preventing a complete transition to global obesity for children and adolescents is still possible,” she said.

“Our data identify children and adolescents in much of Europe and South Asia living with overweight who should be targeted with prevention strategies. We also highlight populations, particularly adolescent girls, in North America, Australasia, Oceania, North Africa, the Middle East and Latin America that are at imminent risk of tipping into obesity.”

Dr Kerr added that urgent and coordinated action is essential to prevent the intergenerational transmission of obesity and the severe health, financial and social consequences that could follow.